A snapshot from the research as of June 2026 — and worth re-checking each quarter, because these move.
If you remember one number, remember this: roughly 40% of jobs globally are exposed to AI. Exposed means the work changes — not that everyone gets fired on Friday. In advanced economies like the UK it's closer to 60%, simply because more of our work is office-shaped to begin with.
Sources and more detail (optional)
IMF (Jan 2024) — staff analysis: ~40% global employment exposed; ~60% in advanced economies. Split between roles AI may complement (help you) vs substitute (replace parts) — both matter.
BCG (2026) — labour modelling: 50–55% of US jobs reshaped in the next 2–3 years; 10–15% of US jobs potentially eliminated in ~5 years in their scenario — not a law of physics.
World Economic Forum (2025) — Future of Jobs Report: 92 million jobs displaced vs 170 million created by 2030 in their model (net positive). Still massive churn — 22% of jobs touched — and robotics flagged as a net displacer among tech trends.
Three ways people read these numbers wrong — and I want you to dodge all three:
- "Nobody really loses," because net job creation sounds cheery. Wrong — your sector can shrink hard while others grow.
- "Everyone's fired Friday," read straight off an exposure percentage. Wrong — it means pressure to reshape roles now, not a P45 in the post.
- "Nothing's actually happening," because the unemployment headline looks calm. Wrong — the entry-level funnel can collapse while the big aggregate number stays flat.
Continue — and juniors are feeling it first.